Bloomberg

Lead Story

The escalating conflict in Iran and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz are triggering a massive global oil shock, with up to 10 million barrels a day disrupted. Despite US President Donald Trump extending a deadline for strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure by 10 days, conflicting signals over ceasefire talks have left markets on edge and prompted the OECD to warn that global inflation could hit 4% this year.

Markets & Economics

• War Hits Global Economy With US Inflation Seen by OECD at 4.2%: The conflict in the Middle East is reviving the specter of stagflation, hobbling the global economic recovery just as it was showing signs of strengthening.
• Fed’s Cook Says Inflation Is More at Risk Than Jobs Due to War: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook warned that the Iran war has shifted the balance of risks, leaving price pressures as a bigger concern for policymakers than employment. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel flagged a potential April rate hike if the European price outlook deteriorates further.
• Trapped in Private Credit, Investors Wait to Pull Out $5 Billion: A wave of redemption requests has left over $4.6 billion in investor capital trapped behind withdrawal limits in the $1.8 trillion private credit market, arriving just as a major fund managed by Ares posted its steepest monthly loss on record.
• Bond Boom in Indonesia Stymied by Oil-Driven Inflation Risks: Surging oil prices are hammering emerging markets, accelerating capital outflows from Indonesian bonds and putting intense pressure on the Thai Baht as the country’s import dependency is exposed.

Business & Industries

• Pernod Ricard Weighs Deal for Jack Daniel’s Maker Brown-Forman: French spirits giant Pernod Ricard is exploring a major acquisition of Brown-Forman as the alcoholic drinks industry looks to consolidate amid a broader demand downturn.
• Henkel Is Nearing a Deal for Hair Care Brand Olaplex: German consumer goods conglomerate Henkel is in advanced talks to acquire Olaplex Holdings, the cult hair-care brand known for its specialized chemical treatments.
• Hertz, Avis Soar as Airport Chaos Drives Boom in Rental Demand: Travelers are abandoning flights for rental cars and trains as the partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown severely strains TSA staffing, causing interminable security lines at major US airports.
• Equitable, Corebridge Plan to Merge in All-Stock Deal: US insurers Equitable Holdings and Corebridge Financial are plotting an all-stock tie-up that would value the combined insurance giant at $22 billion .
• Netflix Raises Subscription Prices By as Much as $2 a Month: In a continued push to drive revenue, Netflix has bumped the price of its standard ad-supported streaming tier by $1 to $8.99 per month .

Policy & World

• Iran Drafts Law to Impose Tolls for Transiting Strait of Hormuz: Tehran is drafting legislation to charge a toll for ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz, effectively holding global energy supplies hostage. In response, the US Treasury is readying a shipping insurance program to revive flows.
• Trump-Xi to Hold Mid-May Summit: President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are scheduled to hold a highly anticipated summit in Beijing on May 14-15, aiming to address fresh uncertainties between the world’s two largest economies.
• Senate Bill Seeks to Curb Insider Bets on Prediction Markets: Bipartisan senators introduced legislation forcing lawmakers and government employees to disclose prediction market bets to prevent public officials from profiting off privileged information.
• Britain to Intercept Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ Ships in UK Waters: The UK will begin boarding and intercepting Russian “shadow fleet” vessels in its territorial waters, ramping up European pressure on Moscow’s sanctioned crude exports.

Opinion & Analysis

• Gold Becomes More Useful as a Piggy Bank Than a Haven: Gold has failed to act as a geopolitical hedge, tumbling 15% since the Iran conflict began . However, it still functions as a highly liquid “piggy bank” for investors to lock in long-term profits after a massive 50% rally over the past year .
• Wars Have Entered the Chokehold Era: The unfolding Iran conflict underscores how modern warfare relies heavily on crippling economic chokeholds, severely damaging global economies that are reliant on Persian Gulf energy .
• Finance Isn’t Prepared for an Iran Crisis. It Should Be: As the Middle East conflict enters its second month, financial markets and regulators are dangerously underprepared for the compounding economic shocks .