Bloomberg

Lead Story

US and Iranian officials are moving closer to a two-week ceasefire extension, a geopolitical reprieve that propelled the S&P 500 to its first record close since January. The prospect of renewed peace talks coincided with blockbuster first-quarter earnings from Wall Street’s trading desks, with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America posting record equities revenues on the back of heightened market volatility.

Markets & Economics

• Markets Are Too Blasé on War’s Economic Toll, Policymakers Warn: The IMF and World Bank used their spring meetings to caution that investors are severely underestimating the long-term economic damage of the US-Iran conflict, pushing back against the current risk-on rally.
• Morgan Stanley Stock Traders Join in Record Wall Street Windfall: Morgan Stanley’s stock traders took in $5.15 billion in Q1, a 25% jump, while BofA’s equities desk notched a record $2.8 billion haul, underscoring how major banks have capitalized on the quarter’s intense market swings.
• Pimco Buys All $400 Million of Bonds Sold by Blue Owl BDC: Pacific Investment Management Co. scooped up the entirety of a $400 million bond offering from a Blue Owl Capital private credit fund, signaling returning institutional confidence in a $1.8 trillion asset class battered by valuation concerns.
• IMF Says Treasuries Losing Premium, Warns US on Debt Management: The IMF warned that escalating US debt issuance is actively undermining the premium that Treasuries command globally, while hedge funds simultaneously pivot to bearish dollar bets amid building peace hopes.

Business & Industries

• Live Nation Illegally Monopolized Live Events, Jury Says: A New York federal jury concluded after a six-week trial that Live Nation Entertainment and its Ticketmaster arm illegally monopolized the live events industry and systematically overcharged fans.
• Allbirds Soars 373% After Sneaker Firm Rebrands as AI Stock: The beleaguered wool sneaker maker, which was days away from ceasing operations, saw its shares quadruple after announcing a radical and unexpected pivot to artificial intelligence computing infrastructure.
• SpaceX Plans Site Visits for Large Investors as Mega-IPO Nears: Elon Musk’s rocket company is preparing to host potential anchor investors at its marquee US facilities, laying the groundwork for what is heavily anticipated to be the largest market debut in history.
• Luxury Giants Slump as Gulf Demand Seizes Up Due to War: Seven weeks of conflict in the Middle East have stifled high-end consumer demand, causing first-quarter sales misses and sharp stock declines across LVMH, Kering, and Hermès.

Policy & World

• Trump Threatens to Fire Powell If He Doesn’t Step Down From Fed: President Trump escalated his attacks on the Federal Reserve, threatening to fire Chair Jerome Powell if he doesn’t resign “in time,” while affirming he will not drop a Justice Department probe into the central bank.
• US Won’t Renew Iranian, Russian Oil Waivers, Bessent Says: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the US will let general licenses for the sale of certain Russian and Iranian crude expire, maintaining economic pressure even as diplomatic ceasefire negotiations advance.
• Trump Threatens to Alter UK Trade Deal’s Terms, Sky News Reports: Transatlantic relations frayed further as Trump suggested he may renege on a tariff pact with Britain, following UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ public assertion that the US attack on Iran made the world less safe.

Opinion & Analysis

• Rogoff Calls Dollar 20% Overvalued, Warns Markets ‘Naive’ on War: Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff argues that elevated US dollar valuations signal long-term correction risks, warning that investors are dangerously overestimating the likelihood of a near-term resolution to the Iran conflict.
• Hermes Is Having a Painful Ferrari Moment: Bloomberg Opinion notes that the Birkin bag maker is finally hitting the limits of its Ferrari-like exclusivity model, as severe geopolitical headwinds puncture the narrative of absolute high-end resilience.