Bloomberg

Lead Story

The US and Iran are closing in on a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with President Donald Trump touting an imminent agreement and Secretary of State Marco Rubio citing “significant progress” in recent hours. The diplomatic breakthrough is already easing global market pressures, sending oil and European gas prices lower while US stock futures climb. The easing tensions are visible on the water, as tankers—including a liquefied natural gas shipment for India and Iraqi crude bound for China—have begun tentatively crossing the blockade lines.

Markets & Economics

• Oil Sinks, US Stock Futures Up on US-Iran Optimism: Markets Wrap: Oil and the US dollar fell while American equity futures climbed as risk appetite improved on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and restore crude flows.
• Treasury Market Ushers in Warsh Era With Bets on 2026 Rate Hike: As Kevin Warsh takes the helm at the Federal Reserve, bond investors are betting he will prioritize inflation-fighting credibility over President Trump’s push for lower interest rates. Meanwhile, White House adviser Kevin Hassett signaled that an end to the Iran war could naturally create room for rate cuts by lowering oil prices.
• ECB Likely to Revise Its Inflation Outlook in June, Lagarde Says: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated policymakers are set to lift their inflation outlook next month. Separately, Governing Council member Martin Kocher warned a rate hike is likely unless a sustainable US-Iran peace deal is reached to tame prices.
• Resurgent Political Risk Derails Rallies Across Emerging Markets: Investors are getting slammed by a fresh wave of political turmoil that is derailing emerging market bets from Latin America to Eastern Europe.

Business & Industries

• Jardine Is Said to Near Purchase of I-MED in $2.4 Billion Deal: Jardine Matheson Holdings is nearing an agreement to acquire I-MED Radiology Network Ltd., a deal that would add Australia’s biggest medical diagnostic imaging provider to the conglomerate’s portfolio.
• China Coal Mine Blast Tests Limits of Xi’s Energy Security Push: The deadliest Chinese mining disaster in years is raising uncomfortable questions about the human cost of Beijing’s aggressive, world-beating coal production drive, which was explicitly accelerated to shield the economy from the Iran war shock.
• Japan Regulator Urges Firms to Use Cash for Growth, Not Returns: Japan’s financial regulator is pressing listed companies to deploy their massive cash piles into long-term business investments rather than prioritizing shareholder rewards like stock buybacks and dividends.
• Dubious Chinese Carbon Credits Expose European Market’s Flaws: A Bloomberg investigation revealed that companies across at least nine European countries bought carbon offsets from non-existent projects or those verified by auditors operating a revolving-door conflict of interest.
• Latest ‘Star Wars’ Film ‘Mandalorian’ Debuts at $102 Million: “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” the first film in the Star Wars franchise in seven years, secured the top spot at the North American box office with a strong $102 million in four-day holiday weekend ticket sales.

Policy & World

• Trump Mulls Arms Sale to Taiwan, Will Speak to President: President Donald Trump signaled he will speak directly with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te after pausing a $14 billion arms sale, a maneuver that risks disrupting newly stabilized ties between Washington and Beijing.
• Pope Leo Focusing on AI in First Encyclical: Pope Leo XIV’s inaugural encyclical will focus intensely on artificial intelligence and feature an unexpected guest: Anthropic co-founder Christopher Olah. The focus on AI comes as broader pushback against the technology mounts on university campuses over education and employment concerns.
• Indonesia to Lay Out Commodity Export Policy Soon, Official Says: Indonesia will soon detail its new centralized export agency for palm oil, coal, and ferroalloys, pushing ahead with execution despite the major policy shifts unnerving international investors.
• Gunman Killed by Secret Service After Firing Near White House: Secret Service agents fatally shot a 21-year-old man who opened fire on officers at a checkpoint near 17th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue on Saturday evening.

Opinion & Analysis

• The Iran War Is Coming for Your Diet Coke: Geopolitics and constrained supplies are already making it harder for India’s 1.4 billion people to cool off in the punishing summer heat, signaling a broader commodity crunch is imminent.
• Japan’s an AI Laggard. That Could Be Its Edge: While the US faces rapidly scaling backlash against artificial intelligence adoption, Japan offers a different case study where its delayed rollout might actually prove advantageous.
• Congress Has a Housing Bill. Trump Has Other Priorities: For the first time in decades, Congress is on the cusp of passing historic housing legislation to incentivize homebuilding and lower costs, though it remains to be seen if the administration will embrace it.