Bloomberg

Lead Story

The US and Iran’s mutual pause in hostilities is dominating global markets, sending oil prices tumbling and buoying US and European stock futures. President Donald Trump indicated that ongoing diplomatic talks present a “good chance” of an Iran deal, easing fears of supply pressures, though costly shipping diversions remain a reality for the time being.

Markets & Economics

• Whipsawing Oil Prices Muddy Traders’ Outlook on Fed Meeting: Bond yields have surged ahead of Wednesday’s central bank decision. Citigroup traders are currently betting the Fed will hold rates, while Citadel Securities expects a surprise rate hike by Chairman Kevin Warsh to bolster his inflation-fighting credibility.
• Bank Indonesia Chief Warjiyo Resigns Early; Deputy to Take Over: Governor Perry Warjiyo unexpectedly resigned for personal reasons, rattling investors and heightening uncertainty over the nation’s monetary policy and central bank independence under President Prabowo Subianto.
• Singapore Tightens Monetary Policy Further on Price Pressures: The central bank delivered back-to-back tightening measures to brace against expected inflation driven by elevated energy prices following Middle East tensions.
• US Core Capital Goods Orders Climb by More Than Expected: June orders for business equipment surpassed projections, capping robust capital investment across the first half of the year.

Business & Industries

• Nvidia Credit Risk Jumps in Swaps Market on AI Deal Talk Reports: The cost to protect Nvidia’s debt surged by a record amount following reports the chipmaker is in conversations for over $750 billion in AI infrastructure deals. The news has sparked wider industry fears of circular AI finance arrangements.
• KKR, ECP Agree to $5.7 Billion-Plus Takeover of DCC Energy: KKR and Energy Capital Partners clinched a £5.7 billion ($7.6 billion) deal to take the energy sales and distribution provider private after a protracted chase.
• BlackRock Raises $12.5 Billion of Debt for Meta Data Center: BlackRock successfully wrapped up a massive bond sale tied to a Meta Platforms data center project in Texas, displaying surprisingly strong demand despite a broader tech debt selloff.
• J&J to Pay $5.5 Billion to Resolve Talc-Related Cancer Claims: Johnson & Johnson has committed $5.5 billion to settle years of litigation over claims its talc products caused ovarian cancer.

Policy & World

• Inside Modi’s Decision to Cave to India’s ‘Cockroach’ Protesters: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government relented to mass youth-led protests over joblessness and education controversies, tapping tech icon Nandan Nilekani to restore trust in the system.
• UK Must ‘Get Serious’ About Cutting Welfare, Burnham Says: New Prime Minister Andy Burnham warned that the UK needs to make it harder to claim benefits in order to tackle a soaring welfare bill, drawing immediate pushback from Labour MPs who oppose punitive cuts.
• France’s Lescure Warns of Economic Shock for Region Hit by Fires: Devastating, out-of-control wildfires in southwest France and Spain are triggering major economic setbacks and mass evacuations. The crisis is highlighting Europe’s escalating struggle to manage the extreme reality of changing climate and heatwaves.

Opinion & Analysis

• US Economy: State Capitalism Is Back in Fashion. That’s Not Good.: Politicians globally are showing renewed enthusiasm for public ownership and nationalization. Driven by security and supply-chain fears, this interventionist trend historically ends poorly for overall economic efficiency.
• Kimi Panic Is a Sputnik Moment for ‘Open’ AI: The release of Moonshot’s Kimi K3 has spurred panic and threats of a crackdown in Washington. However, the true signal from Silicon Valley is that open models are becoming essential to AI leadership, and the US risks falling behind.