Bloomberg

Lead Story

Iran and Oman are in the final stages of a proposed shipping agreement to partially reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz, which has been severely disrupted by the ongoing regional conflict. According to reports, the proposed deal seeks to bar US and Israeli vessels from using the waterway and demands compensation from hostile nations before they can pass. This development has jolted global markets, pushing oil prices higher and reviving inflation concerns ahead of the upcoming US jobs report.

Markets & Economics

• Trump’s Communications With Fed Chair Warsh Signal Effort to Exert Influence: US President Donald Trump has periodically spoken by phone with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, signaling an ongoing effort to exert greater influence over the central bank. These direct communications have raised concerns over the Fed’s independence as Warsh’s revised messaging style leaves Wall Street guessing at his next policy moves.
• US Initial Jobless Claims Hold Firm Below 200,000 for Third Week: Weekly applications for US unemployment benefits edged up to 199,000, remaining below the 200,000 threshold for a third straight week. The data highlights continued labor market resilience and shows that the four-week moving average has fallen to its lowest level since September 2022.
• AI Chip Boom Propels South Korea’s Current Account to Record High: Surging semiconductor exports drove South Korea’s current-account surplus to a record for a second consecutive month. This goods-balance boom occurs even as foreign investors withdrew a record volume of domestic equities, highlighting the massive structural impact of the artificial intelligence technology wave on the nation’s economy.
• Strong Demand for Japan’s 30-Year Bonds Brings Relief to Buffeted Market: A sale of 30-year Japanese government bonds drew firm demand, delivering a much-needed reprieve to the market. The sovereign debt market has recently been buffeted by intense currency volatility and mounting investor concerns over the government’s overall fiscal debt load.
• Banxico Holds Benchmark Rate at 6.5% Amid Middle East Inflation Risks: Mexico’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 6.5% and signaled that no changes are imminent. Policymakers are balancing a weakening economy and slowing headline inflation against sticky services price pressures and geopolitical risks stemming from the Middle East conflict.

Business & Industries

• Alphabet’s AI-Driven Jumbo Bond Sale Draws $115 Billion in Demand: Alphabet Inc. received about $115 billion in orders for its latest US investment-grade bond offering, which is seeking to raise up to $25 billion. The massive demand signals robust investor appetite for debt tied to artificial intelligence investments following a sharp technology sector selloff in July.
• Commerzbank Overtures UniCredit Partnership After €1.2 Billion Buyback Launch: Commerzbank AG has unveiled a €1.2 billion share buyback as CEO Bettina Orlopp seeks to prove that the bank’s independent strategy delivers strong returns. At the same time, Orlopp extended an olive branch to Italian rival UniCredit SpA, stating that a strategy developed together could be highly beneficial to investors.
• Top US Mortgage Lender United Wholesale Plunges After Halting Dividend: Shares in United Wholesale Mortgage tumbled by a record 49% on Thursday. The historic plunge came after the country’s largest mortgage lender posted a net loss of $452 million and suspended its dividend payout for the first time.
• SoftBank Scores Profit Beat Fueled by $8.5 Billion Gain on Intel Stake: SoftBank Group Corp. reported a smaller-than-expected decline in quarterly net income, heavily supported by a massive $8.5 billion valuation boost from its holding in Intel Corp. The investment giant is currently awaiting an initial public offering from OpenAI.
• KKR’s Pandemic Bike Bet Accell Enters Dutch Insolvency Process: Accell Group Holding BV, the bicycle manufacturer acquired by KKR for €1.6 billion ($1.9 billion), has sought court protection in the Netherlands. The bankruptcy filing represents a flop of high-profile pandemic lockdown investments after the company ran out of liquidity to service its debts.

Policy & World

• Trump Administration Spends $4 Billion to Cancel US Offshore Wind Projects: The White House has committed roughly $4 billion in settlements this year to terminate planned offshore wind leases, including a $1.22 billion settlement with Germany’s RWE AG. This aggressive pullback on federal leases highlights the administration’s strict policy pivot away from renewable energy projects.
• Trump Orders 15% Tariff and Price Floors on Imported Polysilicon: President Donald Trump has ordered a 15% tariff and price floors on imported polysilicon used in semiconductors and solar panels, warning that reliance on foreign supply chains threatens national security. However, administration officials are considering a months-long delay in collecting the duties to avoid disrupting active domestic projects.
• BHP and Rio Tinto Executives Summoned to White House Over Critical Minerals: Top executives from the critical minerals industry have been summoned to a Friday meeting with President Trump. The meeting is intended to demonstrate the White House’s commitment to weaning the US off supply chains dominated by China.
• Beijing Flexes Expanding Legal Arsenal to Warn Washington Ahead of Summit: China is using its growing legislative toolkit to counter US technology restrictions, signaling its capacity to retaliate in trade disputes. This legal posturing serves as a direct warning to Washington ahead of President Xi Jinping’s expected visit next month.

Opinion & Analysis

• AI Hedge Fund’s Near Miss May Embolden Risky Bets: This analysis warns that the recent market escape and rapid return of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund, Situational Awareness, could encourage market participants to ignore the dangers of massive leverage in tech bets. The author notes that a near miss is often more dangerous than a crash when it emboldens risk-takers in a highly leveraged tech boom.
• Iran War Should Be the End of the Jones Act: Michael Bloomberg argues that shipping bottlenecks during the Iran war reveal the counterproductive costs of protectionist policies like the Jones Act. He asserts that freeing US commerce from this act would benefit maritime trade and emphasize the strategic need to diversify into homegrown energy sources like solar and wind.
• Big Oil Is Bracing for Lower Prices — and Rightly So: This analysis outlines how global supermajors such as Shell, BP, and Exxon are quietly aligning their capital allocations to brace for leaner times ahead. The author supports this defensive strategy, noting that oil is deeply cyclical and lower prices are likely just around the corner.

📊 I can compile a comparative chart of these macroeconomic indicators (US jobless claims and Banxico’s rate settings) to visualize the divergent monetary paths across key markets.