Bloomberg

Lead Story

A highly fragile US-Iran ceasefire is scheduled to expire on Monday, plunging the Middle East back into deep uncertainty as Israel launches its deadliest air strikes on Lebanon in months. While active US-Iranian diplomatic channels are working to prevent an all-out military escalation, global energy markets remain on high alert despite covert Middle Eastern oil shipments continuing to flow from the Persian Gulf to keep a lid on crude prices. This tense geopolitical backdrop is compounding pressure on global central banks and multinational corporations as they navigate the economic fallout of the prolonged war.

Markets & Economics

• [Fed Minutes to Reveal Deepening Rate Debate] (Bloomberg): Upcoming minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting will highlight an unusually visible split, featuring three dissents in favor of a quarter-point rate hike. Senior economists expect the central bank to remain patient, with some forecasting that borrowing costs will remain elevated and no rate cuts will occur until late 2027.
• [Bonds Face Threat From Climbing Global Rates] (Bloomberg): Beyond the Federal Reserve, sovereign bonds are facing severe pressure as tightening expectations and climbing interest rates build around the world. The bearish sentiment will be tested this week as a US 20-year bond auction measures investor appetite for long-term debt amid a steepening yield curve.
• [Traders Turn Selective on $886 Billion Emerging-Market Debt] (Bloomberg): Following a year of stellar returns, emerging-market investors are adjusting their bets due to currency swings and sticky inflation, leading them to look beyond traditional giants like Brazil and Mexico for specific inflation-linked bonds.
• [Japan’s Economy Slows as Israel’s Rebounds] (Bloomberg): Japan’s second-quarter GDP growth unexpectedly slowed as capital spending slumped under the shadow of the Middle East conflict. Conversely, Israel’s economy rebounded during the same period, clawing back from the sharp contraction sparked by its military campaign against Iran.
• [China Abruptly Reschedules Major Economic Data Release] (Bloomberg): Breaking from its established scheduling practices, Beijing has revised the release of its July economic data and accompanying press briefing to 3 p.m. on Monday, signaling potential shifts in reporting strategy.

Business & Industries

• [Private Equity Playbook Falters Against Public Markets] (Bloomberg): Higher interest rates have made debt-financed buyouts increasingly difficult to justify, leading to a massive PitchBook backlog of 33,000-plus un-exited companies and reversing private equity’s decades-long track record of beating public market returns.
• [WuXi AppTec Defies Geopolitical Headwinds With 100% Rally] (Bloomberg): Despite the Pentagon labeling WuXi AppTec as a Chinese military company—sparking some US client defections—investors have doubled the stock, betting that the firm is too vital to the global supply of obesity and cancer drugs to be replaced.
• [Tyson Foods Slashes Capacity as Cattle Supply Hits 50-Year Low] (Bloomberg): Severe shortages in the US cattle herd have driven up livestock acquisition costs and prompted Tyson Foods to cut processing capacity, forcing consumers to swallow record-high beef prices with little relief in sight.
• [BHP Faces Earnings With Record-Low Analyst Buy Ratings] (Bloomberg): Wall Street and Australian analysts have turned highly cautious on BHP Group Ltd. ahead of its Tuesday full-year results, slashing buy recommendations on the mining giant’s Sydney-listed shares to an all-time low.

Policy & World

• [Trump Orders Cut to South Korea Military Drills Over Iran War] (Bloomberg): President Donald Trump has instructed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to substantially reduce joint military exercises with South Korea, openly venting frustration that the East Asian ally has not provided sufficient support for the US war in Iran.
• [Colombia Pleads for Tariff Relief After Deadly Earthquake] (Bloomberg): Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella has requested a temporary suspension of US tariffs to help the country recover from a devastating earthquake that killed nearly 300 people.
• [Cuba Enacts Historic Reforms in Bid to Woo Capital] (Bloomberg): Facing severe economic pressure from tightening US sanctions and drying-up lifelines, Cuba has passed 176 market-oriented reforms to open up property, agriculture, and tourism, though foreign investors remain cautious about state control.
• [French Premier Summons Crisis Cabinet Over Tax Agency Cyberattack] (Bloomberg): French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu will lead a high-level crisis meeting on Monday to respond to a major cyberattack targeting the national tax collection agency.

Opinion & Analysis

• [US-China Summit Is a Sideshow to Western Pacific Realities] (Bloomberg): While the media will focus on the mid-September Washington summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, the true trajectory of the superpower relationship will be written in the contested waters of the Western Pacific, where the clash for military and geopolitical primacy continues to intensify.
• [Central Banks Must Overhaul, Not Abandon, Inflation Targets] (Bloomberg): Standard central bank inflation targets have historically been indispensable allies for price stability, but they require a comprehensive structural overhaul rather than outright abandonment if they are to successfully guide economies through the complex fiscal and environmental challenges of the 21st century.
• [A Growing Bipartisan Backlash Threatens AI’s Power Demands] (Bloomberg): Popular local opposition to water-guzzling and energy-intensive AI data center projects is rapidly expanding across the United States, creating an unusual bipartisan coalition of red and blue politicians determined to regulate tech infrastructure growth.

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