CNBC

Lead Story

Oil prices plunged over 4% and U.S. equity futures rallied into Monday after President Donald Trump abruptly canceled a planned strike on Iran, citing the framework of a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end Iran’s nuclear threat. The sudden de-escalation averts a major regional conflict that had previously sent energy markets surging and tech stocks reeling.

Markets & Economics

Global markets are recalibrating to a sudden drop in geopolitical risk, with West Texas Intermediate tumbling 4.5% to $80.89 and Brent crude sliding 4.4% to $84.10 following the aborted U.S. strike on Iran. In currency markets, Japanese and U.S. authorities have initiated their first joint intervention since 2011 to arrest the yen’s slide to 40-year lows, with Bank of Japan data suggesting it sold as much as $58.97 billion to support the currency. On the domestic front, all eyes are on Friday’s pivotal July jobs report, where economists project 87,500 nonfarm payroll additions and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. These metrics will be critical as Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh navigates stubbornly sticky inflation prints and decides whether a September rate hike is warranted.

Business & Earnings

In blockbuster M&A news, U.K. pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca is in talks to merge with U.S. rival Bristol Myers Squibb in a historic megadeal that would value the combined entity at a staggering $400 billion. In the tech sector, hyperscaler capital expenditures are under a microscope; Amazon CEO Andy Jassy managed to assuage investor fears by outlining a clear line of sight to strong financial returns on a massive $220 billion AI infrastructure budget, sending the stock surging 15.3%. Conversely, Alphabet drew scrutiny for a tone-deaf earnings call and reporting its first negative free cash flow quarter since 2004, while Meta lacked a clear plan for monetizing its data center buildout. Meanwhile, major U.S. airlines like United and Southwest are signaling they will maintain their current pricing power and elevated airfares—which surged 26.5% year-over-year in June—even as the Iran-driven fuel price shock begins to subside.

Investing & Commentary

With the Middle East conflict de-escalating, ETF analysts are warning that riding the crude oil spike via futures funds like USO or DBO has transitioned from investing to pure gambling. For long-term energy exposure, analysts suggest pivoting to natural gas infrastructure plays to capitalize on AI data center demand, or securing passive income through favored dividend stocks like Expand Energy, SM Energy, and SLB. In tech, investors looking for safe harbors after the Nasdaq-100’s worst month since March 2025 are pointing to Autodesk, Intuit, and Broadcom as resilient names with over 25% upside and heavy, measurable AI integration.

Also Worth Watching

• OPEC agrees September oil hike, completing rollback of voluntary cuts: OPEC+ will boost output by 188,000 barrels per day next month, finalizing the phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut originally implemented in 2023.
• Capital One says it closed Trump Organization’s accounts after anti-money laundering probe: Capital One is firing back against a lawsuit, stating its 2021 decision to close over 300 Trump-affiliated accounts was the result of a careful review by its anti-money laundering experts, not political bias.
• ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ chases ‘Avengers: Endgame’ opening record with $355 million domestic debut: Sony and Marvel’s latest Spider-Man installment scored the second-highest domestic opening of all time, coming in just $2 million shy of the all-time record set by “Avengers: Endgame.”
• Op-ed: The U.S. lead over China in AI is all but gone: China has cultivated a frontier AI ecosystem capable of repeatedly producing world-class capabilities, shifting the competitive landscape from a battle of individual companies to “ecosystem statecraft.”