CNBC

Lead Story

A stunningly weak July jobs report turned the macro landscape on its head today, showing an unexpected contraction of 23,000 payrolls in the U.S. economy. This disappointing print triggered a sharp drop in Treasury yields and ignited a broad stock market rally, as traders suddenly priced out the growing threat of a September rate hike.

Markets & Economics

The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 payrolls in July, heavily missing the consensus forecast of an 83,000 gain. While the headline unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, economists warned this decline occurred for the “wrong reasons” as 264,000 people fled the labor force, pushing the participation rate to a five-year low of 61.4%—a divergence that fits the broader macro picture examined by Lazard CEO Peter Orszag on the state of the K-shaped economy. Traders immediately dialed back rate-hike fears, with Kalshi prediction markets jumping to a 65% chance that the Fed holds rates steady in September. This came as geopolitical friction drove October Brent crude up 1.22% to $83.50 a barrel and WTI to $78.15 following a restrictive Iranian draft plan targeting U.S. and Israeli vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, copper surged to an all-time record high of $6.90 a pound due to electrification demand.

Business & Earnings

Airbnb (ABNB) led the earnings parade, soaring 15% after beating estimates with Q2 earnings of $1.37 per share and highlighting a major AI-driven productivity boost that has sliced product-development times by 60%. Meanwhile, digital medical platform Doximity (DOCS) surged 59% after its CEO revealed that its new AI search tool is bringing in a staggering 10 times more revenue than it costs to run. On the consumer front, Celsius Holdings (CELH) climbed after Rockstar Energy billionaire founder Russ Savage disclosed a 4.7% stake and offered to replace current CEO John Fieldly following a dismal Q2 earnings miss, as detailed in a segment on Rockstar’s Founder Savage Disclosing Celsius Stake. Finally, in fast-food, Burger King officially dethroned Wendy’s as the nation’s second-largest burger chain by U.S. systemwide sales, capitalizing on its turnaround plan while Wendy’s reported a bruising 7% drop in domestic same-store sales.

Investing & Commentary

Bank of America issued a contrarian warning to retreat from risk assets and rotate into defensives as its Bull & Bear Indicator hit a red-hot sell signal of 9.7. In tech, the “SaaSpocalypse” narrative faced a massive reprieve as Twilio and Atlassian rocketed over 30% on earnings, proving software isn’t being entirely hollowed out by AI—a sentiment shift analyzed in CLSA’s Saas vs AI debate. In energy, analysts recommended capitalizing on elevated options premiums in Chevron (CVX) by selling October $180 puts for $4.75, yielding a 14% annualized return if the stock remains flat or rises. Meanwhile, President Trump’s sudden 15% tariff on polysilicon imports sparked a massive premarket rally in solar plays like First Solar (FSLR), which gained over 5%.

Also Worth Watching

• SoftBank First-Quarter Profit Beat (Source): SoftBank reported first-quarter profits that beat expectations, powered by a massive gain on its Intel stake and an upward valuation of ByteDance.
• Southeast Asia’s Rising EV Adoption (Source): CBRE’s Ada Choi reports that Southeast Asia has scaled up as the fastest-expanding EV market, with penetration rates rising above 10% in key markets like Thailand and Vietnam.
• Sweetgreen Slashes Outlook Amid Outbreak (Source): Sweetgreen shares plunged 13% after the salad chain cut its full-year same-store sales outlook due to consumer fears regarding a widespread cyclospora outbreak.
• Meta Ordered to Pay $567 Million in New Mexico Child Harms Suit (Source): A New Mexico judge ordered Meta Platforms to pay $567 million into a youth mental health abatement fund over willful violations of the state’s unfair practices act.
• Bill Cassidy Secures Todd Blanche AG Confirmation (Source): Senator Bill Cassidy announced he will vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General, securing the embattled nominee the pivotal 50th vote.

📈 We could drill down on the semiconductor equipment sector next and put together a comparison of Applied Materials against its peers to see who stands to capture the most of Musk’s new $16.8 billion Texas ‘Terafab’ buildout.