CNBC

Lead Story

The fragile 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement officially expired on Monday, with negotiations at a standstill and Tehran ruling out any extension. This geopolitical escalation sent crude oil prices climbing, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since June 2007 at 5.311% and pulling down major equity averages to begin the week.

Markets & Economics

U.S. equities began the week in the red as the S&P 500 and Dow each fell 0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.3% on escalating tensions in the Middle East, as seen in the U.S.-Iran MoU expiration coverage. Geopolitical panic boosted crude prices with Brent crossing $90 per barrel, sending the 30-year Treasury yield up to a 19-year peak of 5.311% as investors increasingly priced in long-term concerns over fiscal sustainability. Concurrently, weak economic data rolled in: Japan’s Q2 GDP missed forecasts with a modest 1.1% annualized growth, and China’s economic momentum stalled as July retail sales crawled up just 0.6% compared to the 1.5% consensus estimate. Despite the macro gloom, some strategists argue the rally isn’t over yet, as discussed in expect markets to grind higher into the end of the year.

Business & Earnings

In corporate news, defense giant L3Harris Technologies abruptly ousted CEO Chris Kubasik following an independent probe into an inappropriate relationship with an employee, sending shares down more than 4% as president Sam Mehta took the helm. On the artificial intelligence front, Nvidia officially backed a downsized $105 billion credit and compute agreement for an OpenAI data center in Pike City, Ohio, built and managed by SB Energy under a 20-year lease. This comes as OpenAI co-founder and president Greg Brockman brushed off high-profile executive exits in an interview on Squawk Box, while confirming the startup’s annualized revenue run rate reached $40 billion, trailing rival Anthropic’s newly revealed $65 billion run rate. Meanwhile, credit card issuer Synchrony Financial announced a partnership with OpenAI to integrate store-branded cards directly into ChatGPT, paving the way for in-chat shopping over the next six to twelve months.

Investing & Commentary

BTIG’s chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky warned that the VIX hitting YTD lows indicates investor complacency, advising that it is an attractive time to hedge broad equity exposure and rotate into defensive healthcare stocks ahead of typical post-August midterm election turbulence. Meanwhile, market veteran Jeff Currie announced he has turned long on gold, citing the long-term resilience of central bank demand as they diversify away from sanction-prone fiat assets. On ‘Mad Money,’ Jim Cramer argued that the AI buildout has rewritten the rules for historically cyclical memory stocks, recommending investors buy Micron, Sandisk, Seagate, or Western Digital due to structural undersupply and long-term customer agreements.

Also Worth Watching

• Brown Harris Stevens CEO on NYC Pied-a-Terre Effect (CNBC): CEO Bess Freedman joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss the chilling effect of NYC’s pied-a-terre tax and housing affordability issues.
• Monterey Car Week Sales Top $750 Million (CNBC): Robert Frank reports on the record-setting sales from Monterey Car Week, highlighted by a bespoke Ferrari EV that went for a record $40 million at auction.
• OpenAI President Greg Brockman: Compute is the New Oil (CNBC): OpenAI President Greg Brockman argues that compute power has become the fundamental, limited resource defining the artificial intelligence era.
• Meta’s Youth Safety Federal Trial Moves Forward (CNBC): A look at the legal battle as opening arguments begin in California’s multi-state federal lawsuit accusing Meta of design flaws that harm children.

📊 I can compile these corporate earnings metrics into a clean spreadsheet tracker so you can monitor Walmart, Target, and Home Depot’s releases this week.