CNBC — 2026-04-05#
Lead Story#
Geopolitics and the energy market are dominating the tape today as President Donald Trump issued an expletive-laden ultimatum to Iran, threatening to bomb power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday at 8:00 P.M. ET. Despite the fiery rhetoric, there is a glimmer of de-escalation as the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are reportedly discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire brokered by Pakistan.
Markets & Economics#
Stock futures ticked higher to start the week, with Dow futures gaining 74 points, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures advancing 0.4% and 0.7% respectively, as traders digested the possibility of an end to the U.S.-Iran hostilities. Oil prices whipsawed on the conflicting geopolitical signals, with West Texas Intermediate dropping 2% to $109.70 per barrel and Brent crude falling 1% to $108.30. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to a modest output hike of 206,000 barrels per day, though analysts call the move largely “academic” given the ongoing shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. On the economic front, investors are reacting to Friday’s robust jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in March, easily beating the consensus estimate of 59,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%.
Business & Earnings#
The tech sector is seeing massive capital moves, as OpenAI closed a record-breaking funding round at an $852 billion valuation, and SpaceX confidentially filed for an IPO that is expected to be a record public offering. In contrast, Oracle has started cutting thousands of jobs as it grapples with a plummeting stock price tied to its heavy AI infrastructure spending. Over in Europe, automakers like Volkswagen and Renault are attempting an “anything but autos” trade, pivoting to defense manufacturing to produce drones and missile components as EV demand slumps and Chinese rivals seize market share. Meanwhile, despite political friction under Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Manhattan’s office real estate market is surprisingly resilient; leasing volume hit 8.5 million square feet in Q1, heavily driven by AI firms like Nscale locking in prime real estate.
Investing & Commentary#
Wall Street analysts are flagging strong growth potential in AI infrastructure players, particularly Nebius, following its massive $27 billion compute deal with Meta. Analysts also favor Amazon, citing improving demand trends in AWS and its $138 billion partnership with OpenAI, alongside SanDisk, which is expected to benefit from the indispensable need for NAND in AI inference.
Also Worth Watching#
- Satellite firm Planet Labs to indefinitely withhold Iran war images: The imaging firm is restricting satellite imagery of the Middle East conflict region to comply with a U.S. government request aimed at preventing adversaries from using the data.
- ‘Silent killers’: How AI start-ups are trying to solve one of the retail industry’s biggest problems: Apparel brands are deploying AI-powered virtual try-on technology to combat a $849.9 billion online returns problem that has been persistently eroding profit margins.
- Screenwriters union and Hollywood studios reach four-year tentative agreement: The Writers Guild of America West secured a surprise labor deal that includes better health care plans and protections against artificial intelligence, avoiding another massive strike.
- Older Americans face big tax changes. Here’s where they can find free filing help: Retirees are navigating new tax legislation that provides a senior deduction of up to $6,000 for eligible individuals in 2025.