Bloomberg — 2026-07-14#

Lead Story#

Oil surged past $85 a barrel after President Donald Trump reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, effectively collapsing a fragile interim peace. The escalation triggered a wave of retaliatory attacks by Tehran on commercial tankers and Houthi drone strikes on Saudi Arabia, flashing record tightness across Western fuel markets. Although Trump walked back a highly criticized 20% toll on all other cargo transiting the waterway, the renewed hostilities are prompting Asian buyers to scramble for alternative US crude supplies.

Markets & Economics#

• US CPI Falls for the First Time Since 2020, Core Gauge Flat: US consumer prices declined 0.4% in June, marking the first drop in six years and abruptly slashing the odds of a July Federal Reserve rate hike to 20%. Despite the cool data, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his Capitol Hill testimony to underscore that policymakers maintain “no tolerance” for persistently elevated inflation.
• China Exports, Imports Soar Faster Than Forecast as AI Booms: Chinese trade blew past June expectations, propelled by global demand for AI hardware and a 33% surge in green-tech exports. However, the nation’s crude oil imports plummeted to a near-decade low amid weak domestic demand and Persian Gulf supply constraints.
• BOE’s Bailey Says Rates Would Respond to an AI Bubble Bursting: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the fallout from an AI stock bubble bursting would reach the UK economy and could prompt a monetary policy response. Separately, surging oil prices earlier in the session drove traders to boost wagers on faster interest-rate hikes by both the BoE and the European Central Bank.

Business & Industries#

• JPMorgan Sees Record Profit as Stock-Trading Climbs 86%: Wall Street’s trading desks delivered a massive second-quarter beat, with JPMorgan reporting a record $6.03 billion equities haul and Goldman Sachs notching an unprecedented $7.42 billion in stock-trading results. Citigroup also defied broader market caution, posting a 45% jump in its own equities trading revenue.
• ‘We Faltered’: IBM Falls Most Since At Least 1968 on Sales Miss: IBM shares suffered their steepest drop in 58 years following a preliminary sales miss. The company attributed the shortfall to customers aggressively shifting their IT budgets toward AI chips and servers, dealing a devastating blow to software and services stocks.
• Billionaire Birla Seals $1.8 Billion Deal for Shell’s Indian Renewables Unit: A conglomerate led by Kumar Mangalam Birla acquired Shell Plc’s renewable energy assets in India for an enterprise value of $1.8 billion. The transaction marks one of India’s largest clean-energy deals, backed by $1.5 billion in acquisition financing from Mitsubishi UFJ.

Policy & World#

• UK’s Miliband Seen as Least Appealing Chancellor: Markets Pulse: As presumptive UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham prepares to govern, a Bloomberg survey shows investors view Energy Secretary Ed Miliband as the most bearish choice for Chancellor. Anticipating policy shifts, asset managers like Rathbones are already cutting gilt exposure to avoid potential selloffs tied to increased government borrowing.
• China Expels Former Politburo Member Over Graft and Sex Charges: The Chinese Communist Party expelled former Politburo member Ma Xingrui, accusing him of a litany of offenses including corruption, abuse of power, and trading political favors for sex.
• Orban’s Regime Fades Away As Hungarian President Is Ousted: Hungary’s parliament amended its constitution to remove the president and send top court allies of former PM Viktor Orban into retirement. The rapid legislative overhaul accelerates Prime Minister Peter Magyar’s pledge to restore democratic norms after a 16-year autocratic stretch.

Opinion & Analysis#

• AI’s $5.8 Trillion Buildout Needs Every Bond Flavor It Can Sell: Bloomberg Opinion warns that investors bankrolling the massive data-center debt explosion are overlooking crucial lending risks. Without proper scrutiny of covenants, bondholders lack adequate protections against construction delays and problem tenants.
• Inflation Is Still Too High — and Here to Stay: Despite June’s encouraging headline CPI drop, underlying data reveals inflation averaged 3.8% over the prior three months. Bloomberg Opinion argues this points to a “higher for longer” reality that markets remain far too eager to dismiss.