Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve during a White House ceremony where President Donald Trump urged him to “just do your own thing”. Warsh takes the helm at a precarious moment for the US economy, as bond traders fully price in a rate hike this year and Fed Governor Christopher Waller warns that rising inflation could force the central bank to resume policy tightening.
Wholesale inflation came in blazing hot for April just as Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the new Federal Reserve chair in a historically tight Senate vote. The 6% annual jump in producer prices complicates the path forward for the central bank and sends a clear signal that the inflation fight is far from over.
The Producer Price Index accelerated by a seasonally adjusted 1.4% in April, far exceeding the 0.5% consensus estimate. This sent the 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.49%, its highest level since July. In “Wholesale inflation jumps 6% in April on annual basis, biggest increase since 2022”, analysts noted that energy costs are driving the pain, a sentiment echoed in “This $90-to-$120 oil environment is probably with us for quite some time” regarding the ongoing Iran conflict. Consequently, “Fmr. CEA Chair Jared Bernstein on if there’s a ‘potential persistence problem’ with inflation” and “Fed’s Collins: Sees some scenario where the Fed could be tightening” highlighted the growing reality that rates will remain elevated. Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both notched new all-time highs, powered largely by the semiconductor and AI trade.
The announcement of a fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran sent global markets soaring and oil prices plummeting, though geopolitical skepticism remains high as both sides accuse the other of immediate violations.
Wall Street celebrated the geopolitical de-escalation, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ripping 1,325 points higher for its best day since April 2025, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite popped 2.51% and 2.80%, respectively. West Texas Intermediate crude crashed over 16% to $94.41 per barrel, but the physical spot price for Brent crude hovered significantly higher at $124.68, signaling that the actual supply chain disruption is far from resolved. The ceasefire abruptly shifted market expectations back toward a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, with implied odds jumping to 43% from 14% prior to the announcement. Furthermore, newly released March FOMC minutes confirmed that policymakers still anticipate rate reductions this year, provided inflation data cooperates, while acknowledging the need to remain nimble amid energy shocks. In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 4 basis points to 4.301% as inflation fears temporarily cooled.
The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is now fully implemented, but equities are charging to all-time highs as President Donald Trump signals the Iran war is “very close to over” ahead of anticipated peace talks in Pakistan.
Equities surged to fresh records, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closing at all-time highs as traders bet heavily on a diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict. In How the Iran War is unfolding, coverage highlights how oil prices stabilized, with WTI hovering around $91 per barrel, despite the U.S. Central Command actively enforcing a blockade that cuts off 90% of Iran’s seaborne trade. On the monetary front, Fed’s Beth Hammack says she expects rates will ‘remain on hold for a good while’ as the central bank monitors compounding inflation shocks from the war and fresh tariffs. Meanwhile, President Trump escalated his pressure campaign on the central bank, threatening to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if he does not voluntarily leave office at the end of his term in May.
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, but the decision revealed a deepening internal division with an unprecedented four-way dissent from policymakers who opposed an easing bias. Adding to the institutional drama, Chair Jerome Powell announced he will remain at the central bank as a governor after his term ends next month, drawing sharp criticism as his designated successor, Kevin Warsh, cleared a key Senate committee vote.
Apple and Intel are reportedly closing in on a monumental deal for Intel to manufacture some iPhone chips, signaling a major shift in the semiconductor landscape and sending Intel shares surging 14%.
The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, beating expectations of 55,000 but slowing from March’s unusually strong 185,000 additions, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Reacting to the Jobs report April 2026, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee characterized the labor market as stable but raised alarms over inflation climbing rather than falling over the last three months. These sticky price pressures—exacerbated by a fresh record low in consumer sentiment linked to surging gas prices from the Iran conflict—suggest the Federal Reserve is rapidly running out of reasons to cut interest rates. Despite the geopolitical turbulence and the central bank’s increasingly hawkish posture, the S&P 500 crossed 7,400 for the first time. Traders are shrugging off the U.S. and Iran trading fire in the Strait of Hormuz, opting instead to lean into the new ‘NACHO’ (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens) trade and betting that AI momentum outweighs macro risks.
President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the 10-week conflict in the Middle East, labeling the peace offer “totally unacceptable” and extending the closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical impasse immediately triggered a surge in oil prices, sent US equity futures sliding, and fueled gold selloffs as inflation fears escalated. Saudi Aramco warned that energy markets will take months to normalize even if the strait reopened tomorrow, though the company concurrently posted blowout first-quarter profits driven by the war-induced spike in global crude and refined fuel prices.
U.S. consumer prices reaccelerated to a 3.8% annual pace in April, fueled by Iran war-driven energy spikes and persistent housing costs, pushing traders to price in a 37% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end.
The April Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% month-over-month, lifting the annual inflation rate to 3.8% as energy, shelter, and food costs surged. Following the hot print, fed funds futures markets are now pricing in a roughly 37% chance that the Federal Reserve’s next move will be a rate hike before the end of the year. In Washington, the Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as Fed Governor vote cleared the chamber, paving the way for his expected confirmation as Chair later this week. Meanwhile, oil markets remain on edge as President Trump declared the U.S.-Iran ceasefire on “life support,” sending West Texas Intermediate crude back above $100 per barrel.
The escalating conflict in Iran and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a profound energy-supply shock, sending shockwaves through global supply chains. This geopolitical gridlock has fueled sticky inflation and ignited a relentless global bond selloff, pushing long-term yields to nearly two-decade highs and complicating the macroeconomic landscape for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
The Middle East conflict dominated global markets as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked off oil supplies, sending crude prices surging and abruptly reigniting U.S. inflation. With April wholesale inflation hitting 6% annually, bond yields spiked and traders began pricing in rate hikes, presenting a massive challenge for newly confirmed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.