The United States and Iran have reached a tentative agreement to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, though the pact remains pending final approval from President Donald Trump. The proposed memorandum of understanding guarantees unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to pare their earlier gains, even as fresh US airstrikes on Iranian targets earlier in the week underscored the fragility of the truce.
The AI trade roared back to life, overshadowing geopolitical anxiety and sticky inflation, as blowout earnings from Dell Technologies and Snowflake sent both stocks soaring 30% or more. Meanwhile, the private AI race escalated dramatically with Anthropic reaching a staggering $965 billion valuation to officially surpass OpenAI.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge offered mixed signals; Core PCE rose 0.2% for April and 3.3% annually, matching expectations, but overall headline inflation stubbornly held at 3.8%. First-quarter GDP was revised down to a sluggish 1.6%, fanning stagflation fears among investors. Geopolitics dominated the energy tape, with crude oil plunging 5% on ceasefire hopes before violently reversing higher as the U.S. and Iran traded fresh military strikes. The volatility prompted Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee to warn of a persistent “stagflationary shock” in Asia, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stressed that the inflation fight takes priority over a decent labor market.
A volatile US-Iran military conflict sent global markets on a wild ride this week, culminating in a fragile, Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire ahead of critical talks in Islamabad. The escalating crisis effectively choked off the Strait of Hormuz, igniting a devastating energy shock that sent gasoline prices skyrocketing and forced an abrupt reassessment of central bank rate-cut timelines globally. Although a mid-week truce triggered a massive relief rally that dragged oil below $100 a barrel, enduring maritime gridlock and escalating secondary conflicts ensure the geopolitical risk premium remains heavily priced into global assets.
Global markets were dominated by the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict that choked the Strait of Hormuz, culminating in a fragile, Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire that temporarily triggered a massive 1,325-point relief rally in the Dow. However, the truce immediately showed deep cracks as Iran reportedly planned cryptocurrency tolls for ships, and physical spot prices for dated Brent crude hit a record $144 a barrel, highlighting the severe and ongoing disruption to the global energy supply chain.
The collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan triggered a massive U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, initially sending crude oil rocketing past $100 a barrel and sparking fears of a catastrophic global energy shock. However, equities staged a massive, counterintuitive rally to all-time highs as traders aggressively priced in a diplomatic resolution—a bet that began paying off by week’s end when Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire and oil plunged back below $84.
The geopolitical impasse between the US and Iran escalated significantly after President Trump rejected Tehran’s peace proposals as “totally unacceptable,” ensuring the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting energy supply shock has driven global oil inventories down at a record pace and severely amplified inflation fears, pushing US consumer price growth to 3.8% and sending global bond yields to their highest levels since 2007. This dual shock of spiking energy costs and plummeting crude output sets up an immediate, critical test for newly confirmed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, as traders rapidly unwind expectations for near-term rate cuts.
The escalating conflict with Iran and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices past $100 a barrel, sending massive inflationary shockwaves through the macroeconomic landscape. This energy-driven supply shock fueled a hotter-than-expected April CPI of 3.8% and a blazing 6% wholesale inflation print, forcing traders to abandon rate cut hopes and price in a 51% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December. As incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes the helm following a tight Senate confirmation, the central bank faces a perilous balancing act between sticky inflation, rising Treasury yields, and severe geopolitical instability.
Following a week of surprisingly hot inflation data—with wholesale prices hitting a 6% annual rate—Treasury yields spiked, driving traders to abruptly flip the script and price in a Federal Reserve rate hike by December.
The S&P 500 notched its first-ever close above 7,500 and the Dow reclaimed 50,000 on Thursday, buoyed by optimism surrounding the Trump-Xi summit and strong Cisco earnings. However, the rally stalled Friday as inflation fears returned to Wall Street with a vengeance. Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually, and top economic forecasters now project the inflation rate will reach 6% in the second quarter. Consequently, the 30-year Treasury yield topped 5.12%, and fed funds futures are now pricing in a roughly 51% probability of an interest rate hike by December. Meanwhile, the South Korean Kospi retreated 6% from record highs amid a broad tech sell-off and labor union strikes at Samsung.
President Donald Trump announced that a peace deal with Iran has been “largely negotiated,” signaling an imminent agreement to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The breakthrough follows a six-week US blockade that redirected over 100 commercial vessels, as Gulf allies pushed aggressively for a resolution to halt the conflict’s steady drain on their petrodollar wealth.
The high-stakes summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing takes center stage, as the two superpowers navigate flashpoints over AI, tariffs, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed plans for a joint AI safety protocol, while reports indicate the U.S. has cleared the sale of Nvidia H200 chips to major Chinese tech firms to maintain leverage.