The United States and Iran have reached a tentative agreement to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, though the pact remains pending final approval from President Donald Trump. The proposed memorandum of understanding guarantees unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to pare their earlier gains, even as fresh US airstrikes on Iranian targets earlier in the week underscored the fragility of the truce.
A volatile US-Iran military conflict sent global markets on a wild ride this week, culminating in a fragile, Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire ahead of critical talks in Islamabad. The escalating crisis effectively choked off the Strait of Hormuz, igniting a devastating energy shock that sent gasoline prices skyrocketing and forced an abrupt reassessment of central bank rate-cut timelines globally. Although a mid-week truce triggered a massive relief rally that dragged oil below $100 a barrel, enduring maritime gridlock and escalating secondary conflicts ensure the geopolitical risk premium remains heavily priced into global assets.
The week was defined by historic volatility stemming from the US-Iran conflict, beginning with failed peace talks that prompted President Donald Trump to order a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, briefly sending oil surging past $100 a barrel. However, diplomatic breakthroughs by week’s end completely reversed the panic trade, as Iran agreed to reopen the vital maritime chokepoint and reportedly suspended its nuclear program, triggering a massive global equity rally and a plunge in crude prices.
Anthropic achieved a massive breakthrough with its new “Mythos” AI model, but the system proved so adept at exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities that the company entirely scrapped a public release. Instead, Anthropic is carefully rationing access to tech giants and government agencies to preemptively patch critical flaws, sparking intense geopolitical maneuvering and driving the startup’s valuation past $800 billion.
A severe escalation in the US-Iran conflict effectively shuttered the Strait of Hormuz this week, prompting the United Arab Emirates to historically quit OPEC and sending Brent crude surging past $126 a barrel. President Donald Trump’s strict naval blockade and stalled peace talks have fueled a massive energy shock, pitting war-driven stagflation against the deflationary momentum of the global AI boom.
President Donald Trump announced that a peace deal with Iran has been “largely negotiated,” signaling an imminent agreement to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The breakthrough follows a six-week US blockade that redirected over 100 commercial vessels, as Gulf allies pushed aggressively for a resolution to halt the conflict’s steady drain on their petrodollar wealth.
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve during a White House ceremony where President Donald Trump urged him to “just do your own thing”. Warsh takes the helm at a precarious moment for the US economy, as bond traders fully price in a rate hike this year and Fed Governor Christopher Waller warns that rising inflation could force the central bank to resume policy tightening.
Global markets whipsawed Tuesday as US President Donald Trump initially threatened the civilizational destruction of Iran and ordered strikes on Kharg Island before abruptly agreeing to a two-week ceasefire. The last-minute truce, requested by Pakistan, is strictly conditional on Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, prompting crude oil and US equity futures to reverse course as markets priced in a momentary reprieve from the relentless, war-driven energy shock.
A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is facing severe tests as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and Israeli forces escalate strikes in Lebanon. Oil prices rebounded amid the maritime gridlock, defying hopes of swift relief, as Vice President JD Vance prepares to lead a US delegation to Islamabad for high-stakes direct talks with Tehran. President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the negotiations but vowed to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf and warned Iran against demanding tolls or cryptocurrency payments for ships transiting the vital waterway.
Optimism over a renewed push for US-Iran peace talks is fueling a rally across global stocks and Treasuries, easing some of the persistent upward pressure on oil prices. The diplomatic maneuvering comes as a US-sanctioned Chinese tanker, the Rich Starry, tests President Donald Trump’s naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring the fragile geopolitical backdrop and the ongoing risks to global energy supply chains.